The price of Bitcoin has dropped more than 50% from its $126,000 peak last October to February 12th, recently falling to a 16-month low near $60,000 before rebounding to around $67,000–$72,000. Despite the bounce, experts warn that further downside is possible.
Historically, bitcoin’s four-year bear market cycles have seen average declines of about 75% from peak to trough. Since this cycle’s drop has only reached about 50% so far, analysts suggest prices could fall closer to $30,000 if history repeats. But with corporate buyers and asset management firms holding bitcoin at much higher average values, we think that 50% drawdowns could be the new measure and that 75% is ancient history.
They also argue that the underlying pressures — including mediocre macro conditions, cautious investor sentiment, stalled crypto legislation, and ongoing geopolitical tensions — remain in place, making it possible that bitcoin has not hit its bottom. But with the recent positive January jobs number and the stock market strength and the growth of Bitcoin ETFs, we think that $60,000 could be the new floor for Bitcoin and $30,000 is just a scare tactic. .
